Probabilistic Model to Predict the Fire Risk Incidental Duration

Abstract

Based on the statistical approaches used in the research, it can be said that Jaipur is most at risk from multiple fire incidents during peak hours, which occur on weekends in the summer season from 9 am to 10 pm. As a result, the danger of several fires is 44.5 percent higher during peak hours than off-peak hours. 1.236 is Cox's risk ratio for the weekend, which concluded that the risk for event events on weekends is 23.6% higher than the days of the week. For the summer season, the Cox hazard rate is calculated to be 1.210. The result explains that winter is less likely to have multiple fires and that the summer season is 21% more likely to have multiple fires or a higher fire hazard than the winter season. Currently, the fire hazard classification method used in the northern part of the south India, where forest fires are the worst in Asia as in India, only uses climate variables without considering fire markings. According to the meteorological classification of forest fire risk, the difference between the occurrence of fire and the risk of fire, the method issued by the National Meteorological Administration to predict the possibility of forest fire through the link between the occurrence of forest fires and climate change is more obvious in the north than in the south. In recent years, due to the strict prohibition on fire signs, the number of fire signs in the area has been greatly reduced. Therefore, there is a big difference between the estimated fire hazard methods and the actual fires. To solve this problem, a probabilistic method was developed that predicts the likelihood of fire by introducing ignition components (IC) into the National Fire Classification System of India to indicate the consequences of fires and meteorological fuel composites in the fire. The ability and accuracy of the new method in the area were evaluated. The results show that the method is suitable for this area. The IC or the modified IC can be applied to show the impact of the air-conditioning fuel complex on the fire and divide the fire risk into a smaller number of periods. The IC can determine the fire hazard level and related alarm level in the activation area. The same principle can be used to reduce similar differences between the actual occurrence of fires and fire risks in other countries.